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大家好 我是正通一年級的小學生
初到貴寶地 不知道有什麼東西可以獻上一份心力
以下這篇文章是一篇巴菲特很有名的電視演講稿
我把它翻譯成中文 內容是原創的翻譯的不好請多見諒
希望可以給同學們一點點小小的幫助
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
現在全世界金融業一片混亂，更慘的是金融業捅出的問題開始影響到一般民眾的生活，而這些問題有漸漸擴大的趨勢。近期，失業率會提升，商業活動會更加蕭條，而報紙的標題將會越來越聳動。
So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
所以，我最近開始買進美國的股票，我指的是我的私人戶口，這個帳戶之前除了美國政府公債什麼也沒有。(這段話跟我的波克夏公司的持股無關，這個帳戶是承諾拿來做公益的。)如果股價持續這麼吸引人，我會將投資在波克夏以外的投資全部拿來買美國股票。
Why?A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions.
一條很簡單的規則指引我去買股票，”在別人恐懼時貪婪；在別人貪婪時恐懼。”目前可以很肯定的是，市場充斥著恐懼與不安，連投資老手也感覺到恐懼，可以確定的是，在目前市況這麼疲弱的情況下，投資人應該對那些高財務槓桿的公司感到恐懼。
But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
但是對於國內許多體質良好的公司長期發展而言，這些恐懼根本沒意義。這些公司的營收受阻是必然的，但就像平常一樣，也不是沒有衰退過。但大多數的公司，從現在開始的5年10年20年內，這些公司將會改寫它獲利的新記錄。
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up.So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
讓我澄清一點，我無法預測短期股票市場的變動，我對一個月甚至是一年內股票會高或者是會低一點想法也沒有。然而，很可能的是，市場會因為市場氣氛及經濟的好轉而漸入佳境。或許這本質上就是如此。所以如果你還在等待”知更鳥”，那麼春天就要結束了。(如果你還在等待市場反轉訊號，你將賺不到錢)
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific.
告訴你一個小故事，在1932 7月8日，大蕭條時期，道瓊創下了新低點，41點，儘管如此，經濟狀況仍然持續下滑直到Franklin D. Roosevelt 1933年3月就任總統的時候。隨著美國在歐洲，太平洋的戰事越來越差，普遍認為經濟狀況會回到二次大戰初期。但是那個時候，市場反彈漲了30%，
The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America ’s future at a marked-down price.
市場在1942年4月觸底，恰好在同盟國戰事出現有利的反轉之前。和前面一樣，在1980年代初期，在那時候買股票，充斥著通貨膨脹肆虐、經濟狀況很差的狀況。簡單來說，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，它可以讓你在市場價格相對比較便宜的時候來投資美國的未來。
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
就長期而言，股票市場是長期向上的趨勢，所以所有的消息都會變成好消息。雖然在20世紀初期，美國經歷了兩次世界大戰、和其他創傷、昂貴的軍備競賽、經濟大蕭條、多次的金融危機、石油危機、流行性感冒、甚至是因為不光采事件而下台的總統，道瓊指數卻仍從66上漲至11497。
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
妳也許會想從66到11497這樣的漲幅中，還有投資人虧損是一件很不可思議的事情，但是這其中真的有人是賠錢的，會產生這樣的不幸其中有一個原因就是人們只是在憑感覺買股票，而在報紙上看到頭條消息讓它們感到不安的時候就開始賣掉。
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.現在，人們覺得持有等職的現金比較好。不應該這樣，就現況來說它們選擇了一個比較差的資產。以目前的利率水準，持有現金部位，幾乎沒有任何收益，而且確定會貶值。事實上，在目前政府政策極力的想要解決目前發生的危機下來看可以間接證明通貨膨脹的到來，因此，現金帳戶的價值將會加速的滑落。
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
股票在接下來的10年裡肯定會比現今表現來的好，而且會有一定程度的好。那些現在忠於現今的投資者確信他們可以有效率地抓準他們脫手的時機。在等待夠好的消息的同時，他們忽略了Wayne Gretzky’s的忠告”我滑到球{曲棍球} 將會去的地方，而不是滑到它去過的地方”(我應該跟著市場而動，而不是預測市場應該要怎麼動)
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities. Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.
我不喜歡對股票市場表示意見，而且我要再次強調我對短期內市場會怎麼變動一點概念也沒有，不過，我會跟隨有家開在空的金融大樓裡的餐廳的導語，他的文宣廣告是”你的錢放在哪裡嘴巴就在哪裡”而現在我的錢跟我的嘴巴都說：股票
華倫‧巴菲特 波克夏‧哈薩威股份有限公司執行長 |
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發表於 2009-4-24 08:57:06
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