這是高盛金文衡的看法....各位看完我們再一起來討論!別用英文爛找藉口哦,我可是曾經插大英文考零分的紀錄保持人(選擇題80分作文20分)
Uncertainty should largely disperse post 1Q08 results We think the key risks/uncertainties hovering over Taiwan’s tech sector (such as employee bonus earnings dilution, impact of China’s new labor and tax laws, and impact of TWD appreciation) to largely disperse post 1Q08 result releases. Though we do not think the global economy has bottomed out, we still expect seasonal uptick in tech fundamentals in 2H08. We also think 2009 may be better than 2008 with possible demand pushback to 2009 from 2008. We see possible volatile price movements in 2Q08, but potential strength in 2H08 for Taiwan’s tech space.
Taiwan market likely to weather global macro slowdown on liquidity/sentiment strength; local sentiment/participation a key Though we see still sluggish global macro outlooks, we expect Taiwan market to be supported by liquidity strength and positive sentiment from the new administration’s potentially more open economic/cross-strait policies. As local retail investors still account for majority of TWSE market turnover, we think foreign investors should closely monitor local retail investors’ sentiment and participation level, which could be the key factor behind Taiwan’s market dynamics in 2008. We maintain our U-shaped market performance assumption for Taiwan tech stocks for the rest of the year and expect the tech sector to be range-bound in the near-term but along an upward trending line over the long run.
FINI incrementally positive on Taiwan; sector rotation is likely with investors' delimma between tech and non-tech From our recent meetings with 120+ foreign investors in Asia & the US, we believe foreign investors are generally positive on Taiwan but still concerned of global demand weakness. We feel the majority of investors are incrementally bullish on Taiwan but facing a dilemma between tech (lower valuation but weaker outlook) & non-tech (higher valuation but positive catalysts may be mostly in the price). Though outlook for tech remains uncertain, we think market liquidity could switch back and forth between tech and non-tech, leading to possible sector rotation.
Our best Buy ideas in the Taiwan tech space Our top Buy picks in the tech space: Acer (2353.TW), High Tech Computer (HTC, 2498.TW), Mediatek (2454.TW), Richtek (6286.TW), Siliconware Precision (SPIL, 2325.TW), TSMC (2330.TW), and Wistron (3231.TW).
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