外資報告 聯詠 致茂 元太 雙鴻 玉晶光 日月光 鴻海 奇鈜
Novatek Microelectronics (3034 TT)Target price: TWD380.00 (from TWD390.00)Share price (6 Feb): TWD365.00 | Up/downside: +4.1%
Patience still needed, awaiting turnaround
➢4Q25 core results and 1Q26 guidance broadly intact
➢Diversifying to cope with challenging consumer demand
➢ Reaffirming our Hold (3) rating with a lower 12M TP of TWD380
What’s new:
4Q25 core results and 1Q26 guidance disclosed by Novateklook intact, yet we lower our forecasts and TP to reflect a lower forecasttrajectory due to memory price hikes and supply shortages likely weighingon consumer electronics demand. That said, Novatek’s diversification intonew SoC markets to cope with competition in the display driver (D/D) spaceand capture an accelerated edge AI demand opportunity should helpsupport growth, tallying with our positive stance on its structural businessoutlook. We reaffirm our Hold (3) and suggest still patience in investment.What’s the impact: Intact core results and guidance. Novatek released4Q25 net profit of c.TWD3.7bn, 7%/14% above our/consensus estimatesdue to higher non-operating gains associated with FX and dividendincomes.
Excluding these, core results were intact as higher gross margin(GM) was offset by higher opex and lower top line. Guidance for 1Q26revenue, GM and opex was broadly in line with our expectation, whereNovatek expects roughly a flat QoQ, tallying with our view set in our lastresults note that, after suffering from demand rebalancing post 1Q25 pull-inon China’s stimulus and US tariff uncertainty, Novatek could see a counterseasonal 1Q26 on restocking due to lean channel inventory. That said, welower our 2026-27E EPS to factor in the changes in market dynamics.Diversification to cope with market dynamics. Management sees 1Q26resilience being driven by QoQ improved SoC sales due to demand for newproducts such as image and machine vision facilitating edge AI devices fordiversification, offset by QoQ declined small/medium D/D sales due toweak smartphone demand on memory supply shortage and price hike. Into2026, Novatek expects this memory issue to linger and weigh on enddemand. While this tallies with our view set in our 2026 Tech Outlookreport, Novatek aims to cope with the challenges and still report a growthyear through diversification into the edge AI devices, as well as other newproducts like OLED TDDi and high-end D/D for gaming monitors. Theseinitiatives align with our positive stance on its structural business, premisedupon its leadership in the D/D industry staying ahead of the tech curve toenjoy an early-mover margin premium, with diversification into a variety ofnew SoCs helping expand its reach into the accelerating edge AI market.What we recommend: Given our forecast revisions, we trim our 12M TPfor Novatek to TWD380 (previous: TWD390), still based on our 4-quarterforward PER of 13x. We reaffirm our Hold (3) rating with key upside/downside risk of any positive/negative geopolitics (tariff, FX, war) leading tobetter/worse consumer demand recovery.How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 3-15% above consensus, likelyreflecting our stronger assumptions on its diversification into new markets
Auras (3324.TWO): Liquid cooling ramp up to drive growth ahead; Buy
We remain positive on Auras’s product mix upgrade toward AI servers liquid coolingdriving its margins expansion and raise net income by 8% / 23% / 19% in 2025-27Ereflecting the AI servers ramp up and rising liquid cooling penetration rate. Aurasdelivered accelerating monthly revenues YoY since July 2025, up to +122% YoY in Jan2026, reflecting (1) the ramp up of rack-level AI servers driving liquid coolingpenetration rate, (2) capacity expansion in Thailand supporting the company tocatch up the demand, and (3) customers expansion from brand customers to CSPs(cloud services providers) with expanding liquid cooling components (e.g. coldplates, CDU). Maintain Buy
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