聯發科 / 宏達電 / 華寶 / 勝華 / 閎輝 / 手機產業

austin

Silitech Technology 閎輝 3311
Implications from Perlos’ 4Q07 Results

Slowly improving at Perlos: Perlos posted 4Q revenue down 6% QoQ to €103mn with OPM improving to 4.5% from 4% in 3Q07 and -3% in 4Q06. According to management, the relocation of ongoing production sites to Asia and employee headcount downsizing led to cost savings on the operating front. However, the figure was lower than Lite-On Tech's prior guidance of a flat top-line with OPM improving to 8%. Perlos’ management believe that the restructuring program (relocate close to major customers in emerging markets) is gradually taking place but it will take a few more quarters to show greater OPM improvement.

austin

Compal Communications Inc (華寶 8078)

AGM may set the stage for guidance cut? - Corrected Note supersedes any previous versions

Maintain UW, cut TP to NT$35. Given the weakening portfolio and global consumer demand, we cut FY08/09 sales by 26%/26%
respectively, and slash FY08/09 earnings by 43%/39%. We revise down DCF-based target price to NT$35 (Jun-09) from NT$55
(Dec-08). Key risks include massive change of global OEMs' outsourcing strategy.

 

 

宏達電目前花旗喊賣高盛卻喊買

 

花旗的報告摘要如下：

 

High Tech Computer (2498.TW)
Sell: Time to Give Margin Assumption a Second Thought

 

Raising margin pressure in 2H08 — We expect HTC to slash prices to maintain its price gap with iPhone, which could lead to margin erosion for HTC. We are cutting our 2H08 and 2009 earnings by 7% and 12% respectively to reflect this risk and revise down our TP from NT$750 to NT$660. Our 2H08 and 2009 earnings estimates are below consensus by 16% and 23% respectively.

 

Earnings sensitivity to price cut — We estimate that for every US$10 price cut on Diamond, HTC’s 2H08 earnings will decline by  3.3%. Assuming HTC cuts Diamond’s FOB price from US$430 to US$380, Diamond's gross margin could drop from close to 40% to 33% and HTC’s 2H08 earnings could fall below consensus by 16% (assuming no price cut for other HTC models).

 

 

高盛對宏達電的報告摘要如下：

 

ACTION
Buy
High Tech Computer (2498.TW)

 

Operators have confidence in Diamond amid 3G iPhone; do you?

Source of opportunity
Apple revealed its 2nd generation iPhone with 3G capability on June 9. The downlink of the new iPhone is 2.4X-3.6X faster than its previous 2.75G version (when running internet applications). 3G iPhone will be available in 22 countries by July 11. Bottom line to HTC: 3G iPhone is not new to operators, as their positive feedback and strong demand outlook for Diamond will not have come without awareness of the existence of iPhone. In fact, we expect both HTC and Apple to be winners in the smartphone space, as this market is big enough to accommodate multiple successful OEMs. We reiterate our Buy rating on HTC (Conviction List).

 

 

美林對聯發科的報告摘要如下：

Mediatek Incorporation

Valuation improves but still not cheap
Our PO of NT$325 is set at the mid-range of MTK’s trading range. But we see near-term risks that could put pressure on its P/E, including (1) a declining GP margin (handset/mix ASP pressure, firm foundry pricing), (2) China’s opening of its 3G market to three standards (CDMA EV-DO, TDS-CDMA and WCDMA) which will increase competition for MTK in 2009 as it has focused on TDS-CDMA,
the less robust network, and (3) high inventories and downward revisions.

 

 

但是MACQ分析師從大陸拜訪回來後表示....

I am just back from China visit for 10 days, and the conclusion I got from the trip is Chinese consumerconsuption is still very strong...

The reason to cause slower handset sell-through is due to the cancellation of May 1 (long vacation) 10-days vacation to make handset vendors to delay their new models launch to 3Q, then, of course, the sales of handset is slow in 2Q08'.  This is also implied that the 3Q sales of handset should be very strong on new models launching (not only for Chinese handset vendors, also Nokia make the same move as well!), besides, we all know there is peak season and Olympic Game in 3Q08'!

BUY MediaTek for upward handset sales in 3Q08' and cash dividend yield of 5.78%.

 

- BYD, Longcheer and SIM Tech all told us that they have been conservative on 2Q08' by delay new handset model launch to 3Q08'.                            
- Optimestic on 3Q08' on summer vacation and Oplympic Games effects.           
- Some few new models will be launching in July, but most in Aug.. So, components demand should starting to pick up from July.                      
- BUY MediaTek is not only for its cheap valuation (16X PER08'), also for order momentum may be kicking off on July. And the coming 3Q sales momentum should be very strong on a bunch of new handset models launching.       

- The current share price also can provide you a 5.78% cash dividend yield.

- Strong BUY!

 

另外MACQ還表示....

 

TSMC is a major benefiary of QCOM upward 3G chip demand...

- QCOM revised up its fully year (EPS: $2.09-2.13 vs $2.04-2.09) and June quarter ($0.54-0.55 vs $0.50-0.52) guidance. The better-than-expected outlook is driven by the strong demand from the 3G mobile solution which benefit its blended ASP while shipment remains strong.

- QCOM updated outlook is consistent with the strong guidance by its largest customers - Samsung and LGE - both are gaining market share at the expanse of their global compatitors. We estimate both are likely to have a combined global market share of at least 25-30% in 2H08 vs low-20% in 2007.

- On the chip supply side, TSMC is going to benefit from QCOM's strong performance. QCOM outsourse majority of its chips to TSMC (100% at high-end) and is now one of the top three clients and also the number 1 handset customer for TSMC. It will also be TSMC first customer to rush for 45nm risk-production for the high-end chips in 2H08. Other names may benefit form this news are the back-end suppliers like ASE, SPIL and HTC.
Courtesy Warren Lau

 

Time to buy Taiwan Fertilizer (1722tt, Out. TP NT$175)

Just give you a quick update on Taiwan Fertilizer - Linda Huang (met with management yesterday).
(1) Local fertilizer price hike is for sure. The company guided that 1H08 OP will arrive at NT$105mn (1Q08 made a profit of NT$207mn), and 2H08 OP reaches NT$300, resulting in 2008 OP at NT$400mn or NT$0.4/sh.
(2) Al Jubail contributed NT$1bn (or NT$1/sh) in 1Q08, and market consensus for 2Q08 is NT$1.5bn (or NT$1.6/sh). My projection is NT$1.56bn (or NT$1.6/sh). The company tried to manage market expectation not too optimistic. So I guess NT$1.3-1.4bn should be achievable and NT$1.5bn is the best scenario. The company  is still bullish on urea and think it is likely that China 135% tax hike can extend, which can support current high urea price until the year end.
(3) For property, the company's internal calculation for total idle land reaches  NT$10.1bn or NT$103/sh, higher than our projection of NT$96/sh. They used NT$1.35mn/ping for Nangang residential land and NT$1.8mn/ping for commercial lands. R13 is going to launch this month and the company expect it can clear out  by September, so it can book 10-20% profit for this project.
- Overall, I am still positive on Taiwan Fertilizer and maintain my TP of NT$175.
Recently some investors' concerns on Taifer employee hoarding fertilizer or farmers' protest are invalid. If you still have interest in this name, it is time that you can watch for good price to accumulate after sharp correction.

 

Wintek(2384tt, Outperform):Benefit from iPhone II and Dimond

Wintek (2384 TT, Outperform): smartphone beneficiary. Will supply touch panels to 3G iphone and htc's diamond
- Lots of interests in the smart phone space following Apple's 3G iPhone and HTC's Diamond launch recently. We think Wintek is the only beneficiary that hasn't been talked about. 
- Wintek will supply touch panels for Apple's 3G iPhone, starting in July. In addition, they also supply touch panels for HTC's Diamond.
- Wintek is co-developing cover glass, a new product, with Apple for use in displays for handheld devices, NB and LCD TVs.  According to our check, cover glass may enjoy the highest margin among all product lines
- For meeting strong demand, Wintek is expanding its capacity for Colour Filter , touch panel and TFT-LCD. They are planning to build a new 4.5G fab. Mass production is scheduled in 2010.
- We maintain Outperform on Wintek. The stock is trading near its trough at 0.9x. Wintek should benefit from robust demand for iPhone and Diamond, as well as the new product cover glass. These +ve provides more upside for
  current share price given current over bearish consensus.
- My Comments: I has been suffering by following Wintex's execution which always bring a lots trouble to investors. However, since we can confirm Wintex starts to deliver its touch panel to APPLE and HTC, to expect 30% rebound to NT$29.5 should not be a problem from now (NT$29.5 price level happen to be out  initiating price level...) BUY Wintek for technical rebound.

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HTC :

The first valid comparison price point is now available Vodafone Italy has announced unsubsidised 3G iPhone prices at €499/€569
(US$773/US$881) for the 8GB/16GB models. We think this should help to correct some misleading comparisons between HTC Diamond’s unsubsidised price of US$700 and 3G iPhone’s subsidised price of US$199. We believe HTC’s 2m unit target for Diamond in 2008 should be an easy target compared with iPhone’s 10m+

austin

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

 

High Tech Computer
Is It Really That Bad? Think Again

 

Pullback offers buying opportunity:

In our note dated May 7, Diamond Is Good; but Need More Evidence to Get Excited, we noted that we expected some profit-taking pullback in HTC owing to pricing elasticity and a likely change in the competitive landscape post Apple’s announcement of its 3G iPhone. We believe, however, that the Street has overly magnified the impact of Apple’s aggressive pricing strategy, and that this could be another good entry point to accumulate HTC stock. On an acceleration in 3Q top-line momentum driven by restocking strength, an unbroken converged device story, reduced market expectations, and attractive valuations (14x 2008e US GAAP yet better earnings visibility, high ROE, and brand value), we reiterate our Overweight-V rating.

Don’t compare Apple with Orange:

Vodafone Italy disclosed its prepaid pricing plan for Apple’s 3G iPhone at €499/€569 (US$773/US$881) for 8/16G models instead of US$199 (vs. HTC’s Diamond’s US$169) for postpaid only. We estimate the wholesale price of the 3G iPhone to operators at slightly above HTC’s Diamond with a marginally higher subsidy needed. For channel markets where Apple does not have exposure, HTC will launch a lower-priced EDGE version to grab share. We hold our view that HTC’s OM will be on a downtrend in 2H08 owing to lighter GM (rising ODM mix) and increasing opex for marketing the Diamond family, but the rate of contraction may not be as bad as feared.

 

The converged device market is yet crowded:
Despite Apple’s wider coverage, it still offers exclusive deals to one operator in each of several major countries such as the US, Germany, the UK, France, and Spain (accounting for around 60% of W. Europe) and so far has signed up only multiple operators in India and Italy.

 

Other operators in the same region that do not have the iPhone 3G option might need to adopt another device to retain subscribers. We reckon HTC’s customized service, WM OS-focus, and innovative product offerings are key to its staying competitive among other brands.

 

 

Compal Communications
08 Shipment Target Cut Echoes Our Concerns on Prolonged Weakness into 2H

 

Remain Cautious:

We were not surprised to see CCI lower its 08 shipment target to an estimated 48m units as signs of recovery are still lacking at Moto (dip 15-20% QoQ in 2Q; a mild seasonal pickup in 3Q). While CCI has dedicated efforts to obtain new clients (Nokia and
LG) and diversify its product portfolio to smartphone or wireless data card, we have not seen any substantial contributions yet from these efforts. Moreover, we believe heavy competition from EMS and China handset brands in low-end segment will put pressure on CCI for order sustainability and margin outlook. Thus, we reiterate our Underweight, given its high business uncertainty, declining ROE trend, and rich valuation of 13.4x 08E PE vs. 11.9x for FIH (HK9.65).

No recovery at Moto; new Nokia models not big savior: At AGM on June 13, CCI lowered its 08E official shipment target to 48m units from previous 60m units, with the shortfall mainly from lukewarm momentum at Moto. Even though new CDMA project wins from Nokia will launch in 3Q with monthly run rate at 500-800k units or total shipments mounting to 3-4m units, the incremental contribution for CCI is not yet able to make up Moto’s shortfall. We now look for shipments to reach 12m in 3Q and14.5m in 4Q, or total 46.7m units in 08E, lower than our previous estimate of 48.6m units.

Implications:

We cut our 2008/09E EPS by 11%/8% to reflect further reduced shipment assumption on Moto’s weakness. We thus lower our PT to NT$41 (12x 08 P/E on US GAAP). We believe the gloomy outlook will continue to cap CCI's price performance even though 8.7% cash yield likely acts as a buffer near term.

arisayu

剛發現這個地方，如果問個不停，請各位前輩見諒喔

austin

High Tech Computer 2498 TT 宏達電

 

Aggressive pricing on Apple’s 3G iPhone should trigger feature-phone users to choose a smartphone; both Apple and HTC should outperform amid PC-handset convergence trend. Microsoft will support HTC to compete with Apple to standardise smartphone OS standards. HTC could earn decent share from AP region and through retail network. BUY.

 

Your choice – Apple or Diamond tree?
Dual winners – Apple and HTC
Today, operators are actively customising their smartphones through  manufacturers such as High Tech Computer (HTC) to avoid sharing huge monthly income with Apple, Nokia and Google. Our previous seven reports on the “operators’ revenge” story highlighted the increasing conflict of interest between operators and handset makers when the data average revenue per unit (ARPU) weighting surged. We believe both Apple iPhones and HTC Diamond phone models will sell well.

First smartphone users – will history repeat itself?
Microsoft (IBM PC) and Apple (Macintosh) are back after a decade to compete over smartphones. Smartphone operating systems (OS) will dictate market share in the long run, so the competition is not only between HTC and Apple, but actually between Microsoft and Apple.

Subsidy vs profit sharing or will both co-exist?
Instead of sharing a percentage of data ARPU, operators will also give a one-time subsidy for iPhones and Diamonds. Profit sharing (monthly) is more long term and has a risk-sharing effect while a one-time subsidy will let operators "prepay" the smartphone's cost. Both these business models are not new. Different operators will have their own justifications to choose one.

Apple, HTC will gain on convergence in the long run
More consumers will be lured to buy smartphones; this benefits not only Apple, but also HTC. Network convergence (mobile+fixed line+IP) coupled with PC and handset convergence has created a big opportunity for Intel, Microsoft, Nokia and Vodafone to earn money. Content/service (like GPS, advertisements) is the strongest driving force for this double convergence. Apple and HTC should benefit in the next five years.

Is valuation fair?
Apple is trading at 35x 2008E consensus P/E, while HTC is trading at 15x with a 20-30% EPS growth projection from consensus. We believe Apple and HTC are not mutually exclusive; they will co-exist and can cut into Nokia’s, Blackberry’s and other smartphone players’ share. We maintain our BUY on HTC; TP of TWD900 is based on 18x 2008E P/E.

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MediaTek (2454 TT 聯發科 , Outperform, TP: NT$500)

 

- We see China handset market is not as bad as street anticipated. We expect a steeper rally in August/September.

- The overseas market is very strong. For instance, India handset may see 40% YoY growth in 2008 and MTK is gaining market shares aggressively.

- The valuation is 16x 2008F EPS, almost the lowest since 3Q06 (when handset business ramped faster). We think this is too low given MediaTek's current product portfolio is way better than before.

- We also think the softer YoY in 3Q is more than priced-in at this level.

- We suggest investors accumulate at this level.

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High Tech Computer (2498.TW)
Looks Like iPhone-less Operators Have Something Else to Rely On

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Compal Communications Inc. (8078)

•  Unlikely to bottom outanytime soon
  

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High Tech Computer Corp (2498 TT)

 

We have revised down our forecast for 2H08 shipments of the Touch Diamond by 30% to reflect our more conservative view.
We have also revised down our ASP and gross-profit-margin forecasts for 2H08 to factor in our expectation of an increase in pricing pressure. However, we still forecast HTC to record double-digit percentage sequential sales growth for 2H08, underpinned by orders for customised versions of the Touch Diamond, Sony Ericsson ODM orders, and the launch of the Android Google phone.

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MediaTek (2454.TW 聯發科): Buy: Long-term Competitiveness Looks Promising

Reiterate Buy - Aside from being one of the top-five Buys in our semi portfolio, we are adding MediaTek into our global conviction list. In this report, we are reviewing the long-term competitiveness of MediaTek

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MACQ : HTC (2498)

12-month price target: NT$1,000.00 based on a PER methodology.

Catalyst: Diamond's shipments beating bearish market expectations for 3Q08 and the launch of Android phones in 4Q08.

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Implications from Nokia/Symbian for the handset ecosystem

Industry context
Nokia announced on Tuesday that it is planning to buy the remaining 52% stake in Symbian that it does not already own, and establish the Symbian Foundation, which would make available an open source, royalty-free mobile operating system based on Symbian, as well as on contributions of other software assets such as S60 from Nokia, UIQ from Sony Ericsson and Motorola, and MOAP(S) from NTT DOCOMO. For context, Symbian currently has about 60% of the smartphone operating system market, with the vast majority of that achieved through Nokia smartphones. We view this nnouncement as one more step toward increased consolidation of the operating system and software platform environment – something that has been a barrier to smartphone adoption due to the complexity and expense associated with porting application s to different operating systems. Therefore, we think it supports our view that the smartphone segment will continue to grow at a rapid pace. We forecast total smartphone revenues to reach $65bn in 2012, which represents a 5-year CAGR of 15% from 2007-2012, versus handset revenue growth of 4%.

Stock implications

HTC 宏達電 (CL-Buy): Incremental positive – Symbian move could

strengthen HTC’s ties with Microsoft and Google

We view the Nokia/Symbian announcement as an incremental positive for HTC, as it will likely attract more attention and resources at tier 1 OEMs such as Samsung, LG and Motorola away from Windows Mobile and Google toward the Symbian platform. This in turns means that Windows Mobile and Google would need to rely more on HTC, as HTC still represents the biggest promoter on Windows Mobile, and is poised to be the first to introduce a Google Android phone in 4Q08. Longer term, HTC would likely benefit if the evolving industry landscape pushes Microsoft to lower its license fee, given a more open platform approach in general. HTC has demonstrated its move up in the software value chain by the advance of its flagship Diamond family, where the company managed to create its own 3D user interface on top of Windows Mobile, as well as its own applications. We would view the debut of the Google Android phone in 4Q08 as another key milestone for HTC to show control its own versions of the Android operating system source code.

jessie.lcj

Compal Communications Inc (8078 TT) Rating

 

We maintain our 4 (Underperform) rating on Compal Communications (Compal Comm)
and have lowered our six-month target price further, to NT$38 from NT$47.80, based on
a post-employee-bonus-expense-adjusted FY08 target PER of 11.5x on our revised-down
EPS forecast. Compal Comm reduced its FY08 shipment guidance by 20%, to 48m units
from 60m units, at the shareholders’ meeting in mid-June. With a faster-than-expected
market-share fall for Motorola and slow progress from the new customers, Nokia, LG
Electronics (066570 KS, W125,500, 3) and Hewlett Packard (HP), we have revised down
our FY08 post-bonus net-profit forecast further, by 13.2% to NT$1.88bn. We believe
Motorola is in danger of seeing its market share fall to below 10% by the end of 2008,
due to strong competition from Samsung and the Chinese handset OEM projects for local
telecom carriers. We do not see Compal Comm being able to diversify fast enough to
make up for the volume shortfall in the near term.

zakk

citi：MediaTek (2454.TW) 聯發科

Buy: Knocked Down the Prior TV IC Winner
 What's new — Helped by Samsung and Vizio, MediaTek knocked down Trident to take the #1 position in the flat panel TV controller market, grabbing 19.5% of global share in 1Q08, up from 11.5% in 1Q07 and 18.9% in 4Q07, according to Display Search.
 Citi's view — As we highlighted in our previous MediaTek report "Long-term Competitiveness Looks Promising," MediaTek's mixed mode design can actually deliver a smaller die size and lower power consumption of the chips even though MediaTek's 3 in 1 chip was still using legacy technology of 0.11um vs. competitors' 90nm or lower.
 What's next — After gaining clear dominating positions in PC optical drive, DVD player, and digital TV IC markets, we expect MediaTek to gain global handset IC market share of 16-17% in 2008E and 20% in 2009E, from 13% in 2007, ranking right behind Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. We believe MediaTek is moving to Blue-Ray optical drive, Blue-Ray DVD player, and the digitalcamera (after acquired NuCORE) IC area as well.
 Reiterate Buy (1L) — Despite recent news on weaker seasonal 3Q08 demand on handset and TV IC, we believe the long-term competitiveness, shares gain, new products roll-out, and superior ROE are intact for MediaTek. We estimate MediaTek to accelerate its yoy growth momentum again starting Oct 08 or earlier after peaking at 81% yoy in August 2007.6

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Attached ML、Citi、MS、Nomura reports for 2498 HTC

Attached MS、Nomura reports for 2498 HTC

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Attached files are about (聯發科)2454

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Attached files are about (聯發科)2454

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HIGH TECH COMPUTER (2498 TT 宏達電) - Reiterate UW(V): Uncertainty in 2H08 (Christine Wang_HSBC)

We remain underweight for two reasons:

1)        First is on the margin side. We reiterate our view on margin erosion in 2H due to higher portion of ODM to Sony Ericsson and Palm. We forecast gross margin will decrease from 35.8% in 1H to 33.7% in 2H, since ODM portion will increase from 7% in 1H to 12% in 2H. In addition, we also see potential downside risk on its operating margin. Our forecast of 19% H/H increase in operating expense in 2H08 might be too conservative, given RIM guided operating expense to increase 26-28% qoq in 3Q to counter new Smartphone/ PDA phone such as Apple iPhone3G.

2)        Second is on the sell through. Apple iPhone3G will launch in 22 countries today and we still think iPhone is a threat to Diamond. Apart from iPhone3G, initial feedback for Diamond from the end users is not quite positive. On the other hand, we’ve seen weak demand cross regions. We currently forecast 3Q revenue qoq growth is 4%, which is much lower than consensus estimate of 15% qoq growth.

Overall, given high QFII holding level, high expectation on 3Q sales growth and margin erosion ahead, we reiterate Underweight on the stock. Our new target price is TWD600.

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High Tech Computer (2498.TW 宏達電) Buy: No macro shadow on Diamond economy; maintain CL Buy

HTC went ex-dividend on July 15 with 30% stock and NT$34 cash per share. We believe the lower share price should help ease the psychological barrier of high share prices for investors. As the only Buy recommendation on our Conviction List from our Taiwan Tech universe, we believe HTC remains the best choice for investors given these uncertain times as: (1) HTC is in a fast growing industry where global carriers need to push smartphone adoption in order to ramp-up data revenue. (2) Its product leadership (Microsoft & Google) is way ahead of the competition. (3) Diamond ramp-up remains strong (2mn+ unit CY2008, 4mn+ lifetime). Reiterate Buy, Conviction List.