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(080819)GS_Energy.pdf

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OSK RESEARCH: OIL & GAS SECTOR-Our Recommendations:

class=EC_EC_MsoNormal style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 6pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt">OIL & GAS (OVERWEIGHT) Sector Update: Our Recommendations
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class=EC_EC_MsoNormal style="LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify">In view of the dismal performance of the equity market, we have identified 2 KLCI component oil & gas stocks for investors who would like some exposure to the sector, which we still have an Overweight on. Our picks - Dialog and Kencana – are based on the criteria that the stocks have:
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class=EC_EC_MsoNormal style="LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"> 
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class=EC_EC_MsoNormal style="LINE-HEIGHT: 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"> 
(ii) excellent execution track records; 
 
(iii) positive news flow over the next 3 months, and (iv) prudent managements. Both Dialog and Kencana, which have no changes in their business fundamentals, have underperformed the KLCI by 19% and 3% respectively YTD. The recent pull-back in crude oil price should not affect the performance of both companies over the next 2 years, given that their earnings are backed by strong orderbooks as well as the nature and exposure of their business. In our view, oil price is likely to stay high, largely due to supply factors. Our estimates for average crude oil price are US$115/bbl for 2008 and US$100/bbl for 2009. If crude oil price retreats to below US$120/bbl over the short term, a breakdown is likely. We maintain our Overweight call on the sector at this juncture.

高盛對油價的看法--目標價 149 美元 / 桶 Oil market fundamentals remain the key driver of oil prices The recent sharp improvement in the US dollar and Goldman Sachs currency economists’ shift in views towards the general sustainability of this strength have raised the question of the impact of such shifts on oil prices, given the recent strong correlation between the US dollar and oil prices. Although the recent correlation in dollar and oil prices is clear, it is important to emphasize that each of these assets are driven by multiple, varying factors, consistent with a lack of correlation between the assets over the longer term. Put differently, there is more to oil than the US dollar and vice versa. Although concerns over non-US economic growth likely contributed both to the recent oil price sell-off as well as the dollar strengthening – and was a key driver of our economists’ recent shift in currency views - we maintain that fundamental factors that are largely unaffected by a slowdown in mature economies and/or by US dollar movements will likely continue to drive oil prices. Specifically, we expect declining trend oil supply growth and supportive emerging markets oil demand growth to continue to offset demand weakness in OECD as it has done so far this year. We reiterate that fundamentals in the oil market suggest a return to a rising oil price environment and maintain our year-end WTI price forecast of $149/bbl.

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